Stock Market at All-Time Highs: Overvaluation Risks and AI-Related Concentration

Oct 21, 2024 | Articole, English, Home Page

The rally in capital markets drove both valuations and concentration levels higher. Solid earnings, investor optimism and a corresponding reduction in risk premiums have led to a strong performance in stocks in recent months, driving major indexes to all-time highs. In the United States, some measures of stock valuations have reached decade highs, fueling concerns about AI-related overvaluation or even an asset price bubble. Although the cyclically adjusted metrics are still below dotcom bubble levels, they are still considerably above the historical median, suggesting the possibility of a market correction and lower long-term returns. In addition, there are growing concerns about high market concentration, as the largest US companies now account for a historically large share of the index’s broad capitalization. This could lead to the prevalence of idiosyncratic risks related to the key themes driving the rise in revenue expectations – as happened with the development of the Internet in the 1990s and currently with AI.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/ecb.fsr202405~7f212449c8.en.pdf

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